Effect of flow forecasting quality on benefits of reservoir operation - a case study for the Geheyan reservoir (China)

This paper presents a methodology to determine the effect of flow forecasting quality on the benefits of reservoir operation. The benefits are calculated in terms of the electricity generated, and the quality of the flow forecasting is defined in terms of lead time and accuracy of the forecasts. In order to determine such an effect, an optimization model for reservoir operation was developed which consists of two sub-models: a long-term (monthly) and a short-term (daily) optimization sub-model. A methodology was developed to couple these two sub-models, so that both short-term benefits (time span in the order of the flow forecasting lead time) and long-term benefits (one year) were considered and balanced. Both sub-models use Discretized Dynamic Programming (DDP) as their optimization algorithms. The Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River in China was taken as case study. Observed (from the 1997 hydrological year) and forecasted flow series were used to calculate the benefits. Forecasted flow series were created by adding noises to the observed series. Different magnitudes of noise reflected different levels of forecasting accuracies. The results reveal, first of all, a threshold lead time of 33 days, beyond which further extension of the forecasting lead time will not lead to a significant increase in benefits. Secondly, for lead times shorter than 33 days, a longer lead time will generally lead to a higher benefit. Thirdly, a perfect inflow forecasting with a lead time of 4 days will realize 87% of the theoretical maximum electricity generated in one year. Fourthly, for a certain lead time, more accurate forecasting leads to higher benefits. For inflow forecasting with a fixed lead time of 4 days and different forecasting accuracies, the benefits can increase by 5 to 9% compared to the actual operation results. It is concluded that the definition of the appropriate lead time will depend mainly on the physical conditions of the basin and on the characteristics of the reservoir. The derived threshold lead time (33 days) gives a theoretical upper limit for the extension of forecasting lead time. Criteria for the appropriate forecasting accuracy for a specific feasible lead-time should be defined from the benefit-accuracy relationship, starting from setting a preferred benefit level, in terms of percentage of the theoretical maximum. Inflow forecasting with a higher accuracy does not always increase the benefits, because these also depend on the operation strategies of the reservoir.\u

Underlying events and jet reconstruction in CMS

In the following, we report on the techniques adopted by the CMS experiment to measure jets and on studies of the underlying event in pp interactions at √s = 0.9 and 7TeV. Jets are reconstructed in the CMS detector on basis of the energy measured in the calorimeters (“Calorimeter jet”) or tracks from charged particles (“Track-Jet”), or by combining both information (“Jet-Plus-Track” and “Particle Flow” algorithms). Results from detailed Monte Carlo studies are compared with the first pp data collected at the LHC and the jet energy response and resolutions are measured leading to a 10% (5%) jet energy scale uncertainty for Calorimeter jets (Jet-Plus-Track and Particle Flow jets), with an additional 2% uncertainty per unit of rapidity. The underlying event is studied by measuring the charged particle multiplicity and the energy density in the regions perpendicular to the plane of the hard 2-to-2 scattering which includes the beam and the jet directions. The underlying event activity increase with the leading jet transverse momentum (pT,jet) up to about 5–10 GeV/c and a plateau is observed at higher pT,jet values. A factor two increase of the underlying event activity is observed at √s = 7TeV with respect to 0.9TeV. These studies allow to discriminate among several QCD Monte Carlo parametrisations which reproduce the Tevatron underlying event observations but diverge at higher energy as well as improve these models

Electron-phonon coupling in the C60 fullerene within the many-body GW approach

We study the electron-phonon coupling in the C60 fullerene within the first-principles GW approach, focusing on the lowest unoccupied t1u three-fold electronic state which is relevant for the superconducting transition in electron doped fullerides. It is shown that the strength of the coupling is significantly enhanced as compared to standard density functional theory calculations with (semi)local functionals, with a 48% increase of the electron-phonon potential Vep. The calculated GW value for the contribution from the Hg modes of 93 meV comes within 4% of the most recent experimental values. The present results call for a reinvestigation of previous density functional based calculations of electron-phonon coupling in covalent systems in general.Comment: 4 pages, 0 figur

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Short-time Behaviour of the Dynamic XY Model

Dynamic relaxation of the XY model quenched from a high temperature state to the critical temperature or below is investigated with Monte Carlo methods. When a non-zero initial magnetization is given, in the short-time regime of the dynamic evolution the critical initial increase of the magnetization is observed. The dynamic exponent $\theta$ is directly determined. The results show that the exponent $\theta$ varies with respect to the temperature. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that this initial increase of the magnetization is universal, i.e. independent of the microscopic details of the initial configurations and the algorithms.Comment: 14 pages with 5 figures in postscrip

Temperature dependence of the electronic structure of semiconductors and insulators

The renormalization of electronic eigenenergies due to electron-phonon coupling is sizable in many materials with light atoms. This effect, often neglected in ab-initio calculations, can be computed using the perturbation-based Allen-Heine-Cardona theory in the adiabatic or non-adiabatic harmonic approximation. After a short description of the numerous recent progresses in this field, and a brief overview of the theory, we focus on the issue of phonon wavevector sampling convergence, until now poorly understood. Indeed, the renormalization is obtained numerically through a q-point sampling inside the BZ. For q-points close to G, we show that a divergence due to non-zero Born effective charge appears in the electron-phonon matrix elements, leading to a divergence of the integral over the BZ for band extrema. Although it should vanish for non-polar materials, unphysical residual Born effective charges are usually present in ab-initio calculations. Here, we propose a solution that improves the coupled q-point convergence dramatically. For polar materials, the problem is more severe: the divergence of the integral does not disappear in the adiabatic harmonic approximation, but only in the non-adiabatic harmonic approximation. In all cases, we study in detail the convergence behavior of the renormalization as the q-point sampling goes to infinity and the imaginary broadening parameter goes to zero. This allows extrapolation, thus enabling a systematic way to converge the renormalization for both polar and non-polar materials. Finally, the adiabatic and non-adiabatic theory, with corrections for the divergence problem, are applied to the study of five semiconductors and insulators: a-AlN, b-AlN, BN, diamond and silicon. For these five materials, we present the zero-point renormalization, temperature dependence, phonon-induced lifetime broadening and the renormalized electronic bandstructure.Comment: 27 pages and 26 figure

Determinants of changes in sedentary time and breaks in sedentary time among 9 and 12 year old children

The current study aimed to identify the determinants of objectively measured changes in sedentary time and sedentary fragmentation from age 9 - to age 12 years. Data were collected as part of the Gateshead Millennium Birth Cohort study from September 2008 - August 2009 and from January 2012 - November 2012. Participants were 9.3 (±0.4) years at baseline (n=508) and 12.5 (±0.3) years at follow-up (n=427). Sedentary behaviour was measured using an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer. Twenty potential determinants were measured, within a socio-ecological model, and tested for their association with changes in sedentary time and the extent to which sedentary behaviour is prolonged or interrupted (fragmentation index). Univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis were conducted. Measurements taken during winter and a greater decrease in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) over time were associated with larger increases in sedentary time (seasonality β:-3.03; 95% CI:-4.52,-1.54; and change in MVPA β:-1.68; 95% CI:-1.94, -1.41). Attendance at sport clubs was associated with smaller increases in sedentary time (-1.99; -3.44, -0.54). Girls showed larger decreases in fragmentation index (-0.52; -1.01, -0.02). Interventions aimed at decreasing the decline in MVPA and increasing/maintaining sport club attendance may prevent the rise in sedentary time as children grow older. In addition, winter could be targeted to prevent an increase in sedentary time and reduction in sedentary fragmentation during this season

Conjugation-Length Dependence of Spin-Dependent Exciton Formation Rates in Pi-Conjugated Oligomers and Polymers

We have measured the ratio, r = $\sigma_S/\sigma_T$ of the formation cross section, $\sigma$ of singlet ($\sigma_S$) and triplet ($\sigma_T$) excitons from oppositely charged polarons in a large variety of $\pi$-conjugated oligomer and polymer films, using the photoinduced absorption and optically detected magnetic resonance spectroscopies. The ratio r is directly related to the singlet exciton yield, which in turn determines the maximum electroluminescence quantum efficiency in organic light emitting diodes (OLED). We discovered that r increases with the conjugation length, CL; in fact a universal dependence exists in which $r^{-1}$ depends linearly on $CL^{-1}$, irrespective of the chain backbone structure. These results indicate that $\pi$-conjugated polymers have a clear advantage over small molecules in OLED applications.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Loop Corrections to Cosmological Perturbations in Multi-field Inflationary Models

We investigate one-loop quantum corrections to the power spectrum of adiabatic perturbation from entropy modes/adiabatic mode cross-interactions in multiple DBI inflationary models. We find that due to the non-canonical kinetic term in DBI models, the loop corrections are enhanced by slow-varying parameter $\epsilon$ and small sound speed $c_s$. Thus, in general the loop-corrections in multi-DBI models can be large. Moreover, we find that the loop-corrections from adiabatic/entropy cross-interaction vertices are IR finite.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures; v2, typos corrected, ref added; v3 typos corrected, version for publishing in jca